Theorem of Total Probability |
---|
Theorem: Let \( \left\{ B_n \,:\, n = 1,2,3,\ldots \right\} \) be a finite or countably infinite partition of a sample space into pairwise disjoint events whose union is the entire sample space, and each event Bn has a probability. Then for any event A from the same sample space
\[
\Pr [A] = \sum_n \Pr \left[ A \, | \, B_n \right] \Pr [B_n ]
\]
or, alternatively,
\[
\Pr [A] = \sum_n \Pr \left[ A \cap B_n \right] ,
\]